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Friday, November 09, 2012 8:49 PM


French Central Bank Says France Will Enter Recession 4th Quarter; Berlin Suggests Plan For France


As expected, at least in this corner, things are going downhill rapidly in France.  The French central bank is now predicting recession for France.

Bear in mind Europe tends to use a pretty strict definition of recession - two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

Courtesy of Google translate from El Economista, please consider France will enter recession in the fourth quarter, according to Bank of France.

The Bank of France expects the country into recession later this year, to predict a fall in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 0.1% in the fourth quarter, the same percentage that fell in the previous three months. If confirmed, it would be the first recession in the French economy since the 2009 crisis.

This is the first estimate of the situation issued by the Bank of France, which occurs a few days before you make the National Statistics Institute (INSEE), on November 15.

In its latest forecast, the INSEE predicted stagnation in the French economy in the last two quarters of the year and growth in the full year of 0.2%, one tenth less than what the government provides.

Production falls

In a note on circumstances, the Bank of France reported a further fall in industrial production in October, "mainly due to the continued decline in activity in the automotive sector."

In addition, the entity estimates that the backlog of French industry is still at an "insufficient" and that the forecast for November entrepreneurs scenarios are based on "slight reduction in activity."

In the area of ​​services, the Bank of France acknowledged that the activity also declined in October, although the picture is slightly less pessimistic than in the industrial production sector.

In its latest economic forecasts in May, Brussels expected gross domestic product (GDP) French creciese to 1.3% in 2013, estimates now revised downwards.

Any notion that France will grow 1.2% in 2013 is downright preposterous. The surprise, if any, is things are not much worse. They will be.

Here are a few articles to consider in case you missed them.

June 8, 2012: Hollande About to Wreck France With Economically Insane Proposal: "Make Layoffs So Expensive For Companies That It's Not Worth It"

July 16, 2012: Peugeot Has 51% Chance of Debt Default; Hollande Says France Will Not Let Peugeot Lay Off Workers

October 31, 2012: "Google Law" Yet Another Warped Policy by Hollande; Government Motors French Style

I am fairly certain I could find another dozen articles or so because I have written about the inept policies of France dating back to January 2012 if not before, but listing more would be overkill.

Rest assured any downward revisions for France were not revised down enough.

Berlin to the Rescue

Also consider a Google translation from French site Les Echos which reports Berlin would consider a plan to put France back on the growth path
According to Reuters and Die Zeit, the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has suggested the five "wise men" to study what could put France on the path of growth. President sages insane. The subject is extremely sensitive to Berlin, which makes Jean-Marc Ayrault Thursday.

"Le problème the most serious of the euro area at the moment is not Greece, Spain and Italy, but France, because it has really nothing to restore its competitiveness and is even in the process of go in the opposite direction Said one of the five wise Lars Feld. France needs reforms of the labor market, it is the country that works the least in the euro area ". Recently, the tabloid "Bild-Zeitung" was asked if France would not become "the new Greece ".
100% without a doubt Spain is too big to fail, and France dwarfs Spain.

Expect a eurozone breakup, and the sooner it happens the better.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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